Directors Deals Near Closed Period

The following Companies had significant dealing near the start of the Company closed period. For further information a spreadsheet showing full details may be downloaded here:

BUYS

Company name	No of Directors Dealing	Total Value
QinetiQ Group PLC	2	£1,134,000
Lombard Risk Management PLC	3	£1,040,000
Conygar Investment Company (The) PLC	5	£977,800
Ideal Shopping Direct PLC	2	£432,000
Character Group (The) PLC	1	£347,000
Pure Wafer PLC	6	£293,500
BHP Billiton PLC	1	£278,000
Clarity Commerce Solutions PLC	3	£100,000
Alpha Strategic PLC	1	£68,900
Melorio PLC	1	£68,800
BSS Group PLC	2	£62,200
DSG International PLC	2	£58,300
Pursuit Dynamics PLC	1	£55,000
TUI Travel PLC	2	£53,000
ATH Resources PLC	1	£51,500

SELLS

Company name	No of Directors Dealing	Total Value
Berkeley Group Holdings	5	£18,860,000
ITE Group	2	£1,060,000
Goodwin	4	£942,000
iimia Investment Trust	2	£283,000
Ocean Power Technologies	2	£234,000
Misys	2	£200,000
Micro Focus International	2	£101,000
Consort Medical	2	£83,500
IdaTech	3	£0
Hyundai Motor Company	2	£0

Dealing near the Closed - method

I'm pulling together a spread sheet which combines Directors Deals data and Results Dates. The aim is to identify which directors have bought stock imediately prior to the Closed period. If nothing else this can flag up stock for further research. I'm filtering a fairly long list to show only those deals which:

• Are more than £15,000 in value
• Represent an increase of 5% + of the total
  
• Or a new holding
• By the Chairman, Chief Exec or Finance Director
• With Companies reporting in the next three months
• & Deals in the last three months
  

Later it will be worth looking at which Directors have a record of buying before strong positive results.

FTSE 100 Value Picks

Follows a selection of stocks from the FTSE 100 offering good value on a fundamental basis. The Fundamental Evaluation approach reviews stocks in a relative (as opposed to absolute) way, comparing stocks relative attractiveness against 5 criteria:

• Present Value of Future Dividends
• Present Value of Future Earnings
• Current Book value
• Current Cash Flow
• Price / Earnings / Earnings Growth ratios
  

We rank each stock in our basket on relative attractiveness. The most attractive stocks (top 20%) in the most categories are shown below. A pdf showing key data may be downloaded here.

Name	Close	Yield
Aviva PLC	403.30	8.18
Barclays PLC	317.40	3.62
BT Group PLC	145.90	4.46
Cable and Wireless PLC	135.90	6.25
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC	1852.00	3.94
National Grid PLC	640.00	5.57
Old Mutual PLC	117.10	2.09
Rentokil Initial PLC	104.60	0.62
Royal Dutch Shell PLC	1822.00	5.09
Sainsbury (J) PLC	336.00	3.93
Scottish & Southern Energy PLC	1109.00	5.95
Severn Trent PLC	1005.00	6.7
Thomas Cook Group PLC	224.00	4.35
Vodafone Group PLC	135.15	5.75

Sector Long / Short Plays (Month +)

Longs:

Sector	Close	Rank
Mining	21038.8	1
Industrial Engineering	4055.45	2
Chemicals	4674.83	3
Personal Goods	10325.8	4
Technology Hardware & Equipment	349.66	5
Health Care Equipment & Services	3213.21	6
Food & Drug Retailers	4878.84	6
General Retailers	1826.66	8
Beverages	7673.58	9
Forestry & Paper	3751.66	10

Shorts:

Sector	Close	Rank
Support Services	3666.77	28
Equity Investment Instruments	5012.76	29
Software & Computer Services	580.4	30
Tobacco	24245.9	31
Electricity	6217.06	32
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	8459	33
Household Goods	6208.81	34
Automobiles & Parts	2747.23	35
Construction & Materials	3533.48	36
Nonlife Insurance	1272.91	37

Best and Worst Sectors over 1 month

Safety Stock

FTSE350 Stock with:

• Quick Ratio >= 2
• Current Ratio >= 2
• Interest cover >= 2

Name	Close	Most recent Quick ratio	Most recent Current ratio	Most recent Interest cover
Antofagasta	934.0	3.9	4.1	138.0
ARM Holdings	161.3	2.2	2.2	1240.0
Autonomy Corporation	1444.0	2.4	2.4	97.4
AVEVA Group	1015.0	2.7	2.7	5920.0
Bodycote	198.4	2.2	2.3	12.9
Brown (N) Group	274.0	4.3	4.9	7.9
Centrica	247.6	2.0	2.1	4.6
CSR	467.2	5.2	6.3	208.0
Eurasian Natural Resources	906.5	3.7	4.4	90.3
Fresnillo	890.0	4.4	4.9	31.4
Genus	612.0	2.2	2.8	5.8
Hunting	542.5	2.4	3.0	9.5
Imagination Technologies	237.9	3.2	3.5	113.0
JKX Oil & Gas	304.2	3.0	3.1	A lot
Man Group	371.2	3.9	3.9	32.8
Melrose Resources	355.0	2.8	3.4	7.9
Provident Financial	923.5	10.1	10.1	3.9
PV Crystalox Solar	65.9	2.4	2.7	215.0
Randgold Resources	4934.0	5.2	6.6	51.3
Renishaw	582.0	3.3	5.2	36.3
Salamander Energy	279.9	3.2	3.3	46.5
SOCO International	1399.0	13.8	14.0	29.7

Largest Rise off Lows

FTSE 350 Stocks showing the greatest rise from 255 trading day lows:

Name	Close	255 trading day High	255 trading day Low
Avis Europe	27.9	42.3	2.5
Barclays	324.0	383.6	51.2
Barratt Developments	146.0	184.1	29.5
BlueBay Asset Management	370.0	390.0	63.5
Computacenter	288.6	338.7	67.0
Debenhams	89.5	98.5	22.5
DSG International	38.7	38.0	7.0
Enterprise Inns	133.6	182.0	31.7
Eurasian Natural Resources	906.5	964.0	191.4
Ferrexpo	173.7	179.0	21.5
Fresnillo	890.0	892.0	99.0
Galiform	92.9	90.5	12.0
Grainger	287.0	329.7	63.5
Hochschild Mining	296.1	354.1	66.3
Imagination Technologies	237.9	234.3	32.0
Inchcape	34.8	35.1	6.0
Kazakhmys	1300.0	1301.0	173.8
Lamprell	223.9	226.2	57.2
Pace	216.3	241.0	34.5
Paragon Group	146.0	174.0	31.0
Petropavlovsk	1305.0	1305.0	179.5
Taylor Wimpey	42.8	53.2	4.4
Travis Perkins	848.0	880.0	175.8
Trinity Mirror	186.5	192.0	19.8
Vedanta Resources	2392.0	2401.0	387.8

Stock at 255 Day High

Stocks from the FTSE 350 trading at 255 day high:

Name	Close	255 trading day High	255 trading day Low
Anglo American	2653.0	2549.0	914.0
Barr (A G)	875.0	874.0	542.5
Bodycote	198.4	188.7	99.4
Charter International	755.0	753.5	227.5
Chemring Group	2876.0	2853.0	1609.0
COLT Telecom Group SA	128.5	130.6	51.5
Daejan Holdings	3060.0	3055.0	1726.0
Derwent London	1389.0	1347.0	459.8
DSG International	38.7	38.0	7.0
Dunelm Group	415.9	399.0	125.0
Euromoney Institutional Investor	436.0	441.5	147.0
Experian	590.0	593.5	306.5
Galiform	92.9	90.5	12.0
Great Portland Estates	293.5	290.0	128.8
Halfords Group	436.1	421.3	223.3
Halma	242.7	239.3	143.3
Hammerson	453.1	445.0	210.9
Hikma Pharmaceuticals	517.0	520.0	250.0
HSBC Holdings	761.2	741.6	304.1
InterContinental Hotels Group	855.5	857.0	446.0
Johnson Matthey	1615.0	1558.0	668.5
Man Group	371.2	368.1	152.6
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets	292.1	290.4	234.5
Next	2022.0	2021.0	930.0
Old Mutual	118.0	115.5	30.8
Rio Tinto	3305.0	3133.0	866.6
Robert Wiseman Dairies	475.0	482.8	294.0
SABMiller	1691.0	1674.0	905.5
Schroders	1248.0	1229.0	635.5
Shaftesbury	406.0	402.0	186.9
Shire Ltd	1155.0	1148.0	780.0
Smith & Nephew	579.0	574.0	412.5
Spectris	759.0	740.0	382.5
Spirent Communications	99.0	96.1	33.0
SSL International	664.0	662.5	398.0
Tesco	429.0	425.8	285.9
Victrex	825.0	820.0	371.5
WH Smith	533.0	525.5	312.0

Cheap on Forecast Earnings

Ten lowest Forecast PER stocks from the FTSE 350:

Name	Close	1 year forecast EPS	1 Yr Forecast PER
Aviva	409.7	69.57	5.89
Catlin Group Ltd	334.3	72.24	4.63
Enterprise Inns	133.6	30.98	4.31
Hiscox Ltd	331.9	51.79	6.41
Interserve	238.4	42.81	5.57
Marston's	87.8	14.15	6.20
National Express	339.6	59.12	5.74
Premier Foods	34.4	5.73	6.01
Punch Taverns	92.3	17.28	5.34
Yell Group	45.6	12.83	3.55

Cheap on Cashflow

Lowest Price to Cashflow from the FTSE 350:

Name	Close	Most recent Price to cash flow	Most recent Cash flow ps (p)
Arriva	458.5	2.8	163.0
Ashtead Group	80.7	1.2	68.7
Barratt Developments	146	1.8	77.4
Berkeley Group Holdings	868.5	3.6	241.0
BT Group	149.6	3.0	49.6
Carphone Warehouse Group	204.4	2.1	98.0
COLT Telecom Group SA	128.5	2.6	50.0
Davis Service Group	432.5	3.3	131.0
Enterprise Inns	133.6	3.1	42.8
Go-Ahead Group	1393	2.8	489.0
Ladbrokes	128.9	3.1	42.1
Marston's	87.8	3.4	25.4
Mitchells & Butlers	260.8	3.4	75.9
Mondi	348.3	3.1	110.0
National Express Group	339.6	3.1	108.0
Northgate	265	0.2	1030.0
Paragon Group of Companies	146	0.3	492.0
PV Crystalox Solar	65.9	3.1	20.6
Rank Group	81.4	2.5	31.8
Shanks Group	90.4	3.6	25.5
SIG	132	2.6	49.9
Taylor Wimpey	42.8	3.0	14.0
Wolseley	1400	2.9	480.0
Yell Group	45.6	0.9	52.7

Cheap on Book

FTSE 350 stocks (ex REITs and Investment Trusts) with:

• Price to Book value lower than 1
• Cashflow Positive
• Excluding REITs and Investment Trusts
• Showing a Profit

Name	Close	Price to cash flow	Price to book value
Ashtead Group	80.7	1.2	0.8
Cookson Group	448.4	5.0	0.6
Enterprise Inns	133.6	3.1	0.4
Laird	136.6	5.2	0.5
Marston's	87.8	3.4	0.5
Millennium & Copthorne	379.2	9.2	0.7
Paragon Group	146	0.3	0.7
Royal Dutch Shell	1829	3.7	0.6
SIG	132	2.6	0.4
Vodafone Group	138.7	6.1	0.8

Income Stock

FTSE 350 Stocks with a covered yield and potential for capital growth:

• Yielding > 4%,
• Forecast Yield > 4%,
• Dividend covered by earnings,
• Forecast dividend > 1.25 x covered by earnings,
• PEG ratio <= 1

Name	Close	Yield	Forecast Yield	Forecast Divi Cover
Balfour Beatty	276.4	4.07	4.91	2.58
British American Tobacco	1987	4.20	4.99	1.54
Carillion	312.5	4.16	4.50	2.67
Davis Service Group	432.5	4.68	4.69	1.85
De La Rue	992	4.14	4.44	1.67
HMV Group	117.3	6.54	6.31	1.74
ICAP	424.3	4.08	4.08	1.89
Interserve	238.4	7.21	7.37	2.44
National Grid	638	5.67	6.03	1.52
Northumbrian Water Group	241.5	5.27	5.42	1.86
Pearson	854	4.00	4.14	1.70
Reed Elsevier	475	4.31	4.39	2.12

Final Review of April Ideas

In April I published investment ideas (under the usual caveats) based on analysis of fundamental values and price action. That was 7 months ago. How did those ideas perform in comparison to the index from which they were drawn?

The FTSE 350 closed at 2142 on Thursday 2nd April rising to 2,772 on November 13th. This is a rise of 630 points or 29.41%.

Over the same period the investment ideas here averaged a 45% return:

Method	Pd Rtn	Rel Rtn
Safety Stock	53.95%	24.54%
Largest Bounce off Low	46.96%	17.55%
Stocks at / near 255 day high	41.52%	12.11%
Stocks Near 255 Day High	29.21%	-0.20%
Cheap on forecast Earnings	64.85%	35.44%
Cheap on Cashflow	64.57%	35.15%
Cheap on Book	23.16%	-6.26%
Income Stock	40.79%	11.38%