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Investment Viagra

2010-08-06T08:28:00.008+01:00

Systematic Trading

Turtle rules - A good introduction to systematic trading.

Introduction to Testing Trading Ideas- Clear article from Vertical Solutions.

Does Trend Following work on Stocks - U.S. Paper on, well, Trend Following.

Momentum Trading - My own study of Momentum Trading

CANSLIM - A systematic approach to investing based on Fundamentals

Chance and Risk

Lets Make a Deal The Monty Hall Problem.

Perfect Storms Beautiful and True Lies in (Financial) Risk Management.

Trading & Investment Blogs

FT - Alpahaville Free daily news and comment for market proffesionals.

Traderfeed Brett Steenbarger on the Psychology of trading.

Ernie Chan Quant Trading Blogspot.

Taxation:

Residence and Domicile - HMRC Guidance issued Feb 2010.

My Stuff:

Excel Trading Tools A few simple (and not so simple) spreadsheets.

Snippets: Short Investment / Trading ideas and thoughts.

Software & Market Info:

FT Markets Data Online resource providing a broad range of market info.
Includes a stock filter tool.

See previous post here.

Directors Deals Near Closed Period

2009-11-21T09:00:00.010Z

The following Companies had significant dealing near the start of the Company closed period. For further information a spreadsheet showing full details may be downloaded here:

BUYS

Company name	No of Directors Dealing	Total Value
QinetiQ Group PLC	2	£1,134,000
Lombard Risk Management PLC	3	£1,040,000
Conygar Investment Company (The) PLC	5	£977,800
Ideal Shopping Direct PLC	2	£432,000
Character Group (The) PLC	1	£347,000
Pure Wafer PLC	6	£293,500
BHP Billiton PLC	1	£278,000
Clarity Commerce Solutions PLC	3	£100,000
Alpha Strategic PLC	1	£68,900
Melorio PLC	1	£68,800
BSS Group PLC	2	£62,200
DSG International PLC	2	£58,300
Pursuit Dynamics PLC	1	£55,000
TUI Travel PLC	2	£53,000
ATH Resources PLC	1	£51,500

SELLS

Company name	No of Directors Dealing	Total Value
Berkeley Group Holdings	5	£18,860,000
ITE Group	2	£1,060,000
Goodwin	4	£942,000
iimia Investment Trust	2	£283,000
Ocean Power Technologies	2	£234,000
Misys	2	£200,000
Micro Focus International	2	£101,000
Consort Medical	2	£83,500
IdaTech	3	£0
Hyundai Motor Company	2	£0

Dealing near the Closed - method

2009-11-20T15:33:00.009Z

I'm pulling together a spread sheet which combines Directors Deals data and Results Dates. The aim is to identify which directors have bought stock imediately prior to the Closed period. If nothing else this can flag up stock for further research. I'm filtering a fairly long list to show only those deals which:

Are more than £15,000 in value
Represent an increase of 5% + of the total
Or a new holding
By the Chairman, Chief Exec or Finance Director
With Companies reporting in the next three months
& Deals in the last three months

Later it will be worth looking at which Directors have a record of buying before strong positive results.

FTSE 100 Value Picks

2009-11-19T09:33:00.005Z

Follows a selection of stocks from the FTSE 100 offering good value on a fundamental basis. The Fundamental Evaluation approach reviews stocks in a relative (as opposed to absolute) way, comparing stocks relative attractiveness against 5 criteria:

Present Value of Future Dividends
Present Value of Future Earnings
Current Book value
Current Cash Flow
Price / Earnings / Earnings Growth ratios

We rank each stock in our basket on relative attractiveness. The most attractive stocks (top 20%) in the most categories are shown below. A pdf showing key data may be downloaded here.

Name	Close	Yield
Aviva PLC	403.30	8.18
Barclays PLC	317.40	3.62
BT Group PLC	145.90	4.46
Cable and Wireless PLC	135.90	6.25
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC	1852.00	3.94
National Grid PLC	640.00	5.57
Old Mutual PLC	117.10	2.09
Rentokil Initial PLC	104.60	0.62
Royal Dutch Shell PLC	1822.00	5.09
Sainsbury (J) PLC	336.00	3.93
Scottish & Southern Energy PLC	1109.00	5.95
Severn Trent PLC	1005.00	6.7
Thomas Cook Group PLC	224.00	4.35
Vodafone Group PLC	135.15	5.75

Sector Long / Short Plays (Month +)

2009-11-16T21:43:00.006Z

Longs:

Sector	Close	Rank
Mining	21038.8	1
Industrial Engineering	4055.45	2
Chemicals	4674.83	3
Personal Goods	10325.8	4
Technology Hardware & Equipment	349.66	5
Health Care Equipment & Services	3213.21	6
Food & Drug Retailers	4878.84	6
General Retailers	1826.66	8
Beverages	7673.58	9
Forestry & Paper	3751.66	10

Shorts:

Sector	Close	Rank
Support Services	3666.77	28
Equity Investment Instruments	5012.76	29
Software & Computer Services	580.4	30
Tobacco	24245.9	31
Electricity	6217.06	32
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	8459	33
Household Goods	6208.81	34
Automobiles & Parts	2747.23	35
Construction & Materials	3533.48	36
Nonlife Insurance	1272.91	37

Best and Worst Sectors over 1 month

2009-11-16T21:38:00.004Z

Safety Stock

2009-11-16T20:51:00.002Z

FTSE350 Stock with:

Quick Ratio >= 2
Current Ratio >= 2
Interest cover >= 2

Name	Close	Most recent Quick ratio	Most recent Current ratio	Most recent Interest cover
Antofagasta	934.0	3.9	4.1	138.0
ARM Holdings	161.3	2.2	2.2	1240.0
Autonomy Corporation	1444.0	2.4	2.4	97.4
AVEVA Group	1015.0	2.7	2.7	5920.0
Bodycote	198.4	2.2	2.3	12.9
Brown (N) Group	274.0	4.3	4.9	7.9
Centrica	247.6	2.0	2.1	4.6
CSR	467.2	5.2	6.3	208.0
Eurasian Natural Resources	906.5	3.7	4.4	90.3
Fresnillo	890.0	4.4	4.9	31.4
Genus	612.0	2.2	2.8	5.8
Hunting	542.5	2.4	3.0	9.5
Imagination Technologies	237.9	3.2	3.5	113.0
JKX Oil & Gas	304.2	3.0	3.1	A lot
Man Group	371.2	3.9	3.9	32.8
Melrose Resources	355.0	2.8	3.4	7.9
Provident Financial	923.5	10.1	10.1	3.9
PV Crystalox Solar	65.9	2.4	2.7	215.0
Randgold Resources	4934.0	5.2	6.6	51.3
Renishaw	582.0	3.3	5.2	36.3
Salamander Energy	279.9	3.2	3.3	46.5
SOCO International	1399.0	13.8	14.0	29.7

Largest Rise off Lows

2009-11-16T20:48:00.003Z

FTSE 350 Stocks showing the greatest rise from 255 trading day lows:

Name	Close	255 trading day High	255 trading day Low
Avis Europe	27.9	42.3	2.5
Barclays	324.0	383.6	51.2
Barratt Developments	146.0	184.1	29.5
BlueBay Asset Management	370.0	390.0	63.5
Computacenter	288.6	338.7	67.0
Debenhams	89.5	98.5	22.5
DSG International	38.7	38.0	7.0
Enterprise Inns	133.6	182.0	31.7
Eurasian Natural Resources	906.5	964.0	191.4
Ferrexpo	173.7	179.0	21.5
Fresnillo	890.0	892.0	99.0
Galiform	92.9	90.5	12.0
Grainger	287.0	329.7	63.5
Hochschild Mining	296.1	354.1	66.3
Imagination Technologies	237.9	234.3	32.0
Inchcape	34.8	35.1	6.0
Kazakhmys	1300.0	1301.0	173.8
Lamprell	223.9	226.2	57.2
Pace	216.3	241.0	34.5
Paragon Group	146.0	174.0	31.0
Petropavlovsk	1305.0	1305.0	179.5
Taylor Wimpey	42.8	53.2	4.4
Travis Perkins	848.0	880.0	175.8
Trinity Mirror	186.5	192.0	19.8
Vedanta Resources	2392.0	2401.0	387.8

Stock at 255 Day High

2009-11-16T20:44:00.005Z

Stocks from the FTSE 350 trading at 255 day high:

Name	Close	255 trading day High	255 trading day Low
Anglo American	2653.0	2549.0	914.0
Barr (A G)	875.0	874.0	542.5
Bodycote	198.4	188.7	99.4
Charter International	755.0	753.5	227.5
Chemring Group	2876.0	2853.0	1609.0
COLT Telecom Group SA	128.5	130.6	51.5
Daejan Holdings	3060.0	3055.0	1726.0
Derwent London	1389.0	1347.0	459.8
DSG International	38.7	38.0	7.0
Dunelm Group	415.9	399.0	125.0
Euromoney Institutional Investor	436.0	441.5	147.0
Experian	590.0	593.5	306.5
Galiform	92.9	90.5	12.0
Great Portland Estates	293.5	290.0	128.8
Halfords Group	436.1	421.3	223.3
Halma	242.7	239.3	143.3
Hammerson	453.1	445.0	210.9
Hikma Pharmaceuticals	517.0	520.0	250.0
HSBC Holdings	761.2	741.6	304.1
InterContinental Hotels Group	855.5	857.0	446.0
Johnson Matthey	1615.0	1558.0	668.5
Man Group	371.2	368.1	152.6
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets	292.1	290.4	234.5
Next	2022.0	2021.0	930.0
Old Mutual	118.0	115.5	30.8
Rio Tinto	3305.0	3133.0	866.6
Robert Wiseman Dairies	475.0	482.8	294.0
SABMiller	1691.0	1674.0	905.5
Schroders	1248.0	1229.0	635.5
Shaftesbury	406.0	402.0	186.9
Shire Ltd	1155.0	1148.0	780.0
Smith & Nephew	579.0	574.0	412.5
Spectris	759.0	740.0	382.5
Spirent Communications	99.0	96.1	33.0
SSL International	664.0	662.5	398.0
Tesco	429.0	425.8	285.9
Victrex	825.0	820.0	371.5
WH Smith	533.0	525.5	312.0

Cheap on Forecast Earnings

2009-11-16T20:34:00.004Z

Ten lowest Forecast PER stocks from the FTSE 350:

Name	Close	1 year forecast EPS	1 Yr Forecast PER
Aviva	409.7	69.57	5.89
Catlin Group Ltd	334.3	72.24	4.63
Enterprise Inns	133.6	30.98	4.31
Hiscox Ltd	331.9	51.79	6.41
Interserve	238.4	42.81	5.57
Marston's	87.8	14.15	6.20
National Express	339.6	59.12	5.74
Premier Foods	34.4	5.73	6.01
Punch Taverns	92.3	17.28	5.34
Yell Group	45.6	12.83	3.55

Cheap on Cashflow

2009-11-16T20:32:00.002Z

Lowest Price to Cashflow from the FTSE 350:

Name	Close	Most recent Price to cash flow	Most recent Cash flow ps (p)
Arriva	458.5	2.8	163.0
Ashtead Group	80.7	1.2	68.7
Barratt Developments	146	1.8	77.4
Berkeley Group Holdings	868.5	3.6	241.0
BT Group	149.6	3.0	49.6
Carphone Warehouse Group	204.4	2.1	98.0
COLT Telecom Group SA	128.5	2.6	50.0
Davis Service Group	432.5	3.3	131.0
Enterprise Inns	133.6	3.1	42.8
Go-Ahead Group	1393	2.8	489.0
Ladbrokes	128.9	3.1	42.1
Marston's	87.8	3.4	25.4
Mitchells & Butlers	260.8	3.4	75.9
Mondi	348.3	3.1	110.0
National Express Group	339.6	3.1	108.0
Northgate	265	0.2	1030.0
Paragon Group of Companies	146	0.3	492.0
PV Crystalox Solar	65.9	3.1	20.6
Rank Group	81.4	2.5	31.8
Shanks Group	90.4	3.6	25.5
SIG	132	2.6	49.9
Taylor Wimpey	42.8	3.0	14.0
Wolseley	1400	2.9	480.0
Yell Group	45.6	0.9	52.7

Cheap on Book

2009-11-16T20:01:00.007Z

FTSE 350 stocks (ex REITs and Investment Trusts) with:

Price to Book value lower than 1
Cashflow Positive
Excluding REITs and Investment Trusts
Showing a Profit

Name	Close	Price to cash flow	Price to book value
Ashtead Group	80.7	1.2	0.8
Cookson Group	448.4	5.0	0.6
Enterprise Inns	133.6	3.1	0.4
Laird	136.6	5.2	0.5
Marston's	87.8	3.4	0.5
Millennium & Copthorne	379.2	9.2	0.7
Paragon Group	146	0.3	0.7
Royal Dutch Shell	1829	3.7	0.6
SIG	132	2.6	0.4
Vodafone Group	138.7	6.1	0.8

Income Stock

2009-11-16T15:36:00.015Z

FTSE 350 Stocks with a covered yield and potential for capital growth:

Yielding > 4%,
Forecast Yield > 4%,
Dividend covered by earnings,
Forecast dividend > 1.25 x covered by earnings,
PEG ratio <= 1

Name	Close	Yield	Forecast Yield	Forecast Divi Cover
Balfour Beatty	276.4	4.07	4.91	2.58
British American Tobacco	1987	4.20	4.99	1.54
Carillion	312.5	4.16	4.50	2.67
Davis Service Group	432.5	4.68	4.69	1.85
De La Rue	992	4.14	4.44	1.67
HMV Group	117.3	6.54	6.31	1.74
ICAP	424.3	4.08	4.08	1.89
Interserve	238.4	7.21	7.37	2.44
National Grid	638	5.67	6.03	1.52
Northumbrian Water Group	241.5	5.27	5.42	1.86
Pearson	854	4.00	4.14	1.70
Reed Elsevier	475	4.31	4.39	2.12

Final Review of April Ideas

2009-11-16T14:01:00.004Z

In April I published investment ideas (under the usual caveats) based on analysis of fundamental values and price action. That was 7 months ago. How did those ideas perform in comparison to the index from which they were drawn?

The FTSE 350 closed at 2142 on Thursday 2nd April rising to 2,772 on November 13th. This is a rise of 630 points or 29.41%.

Over the same period the investment ideas here averaged a 45% return:

Method	Pd Rtn	Rel Rtn
Safety Stock	53.95%	24.54%
Largest Bounce off Low	46.96%	17.55%
Stocks at / near 255 day high	41.52%	12.11%
Stocks Near 255 Day High	29.21%	-0.20%
Cheap on forecast Earnings	64.85%	35.44%
Cheap on Cashflow	64.57%	35.15%
Cheap on Book	23.16%	-6.26%
Income Stock	40.79%	11.38%

Review of April Ideas

2009-08-08T09:31:00.005+01:00

In April I published investment ideas (under the usual caveats) based on analysis of fundamental values and price action. That was 4 months ago. How did those ideas perform in comparison to the index from which they were drawn?

The FTSE 350 closed at 2142 on Thursday 2nd April rising to 2,392 on July 27th. This is a rise of 250 points or 11.67%.

Over the same period the investment ideas here averaged a 24% return:

Method	Pd Rtn	Rel Rtn'
Safety Stock	25.21%	13.54%
Largest rise from lows	33.71%	22.04%
Stocks at 255 day high	19.05%	7.38%
Stocks near 255 day highs	13.60%	1.92%
Cheap on Forecast earnings	37.78%	26.11%
Cheap on Cashflow	27.91%	16.24%
Cheap on Book	3.77%	-7.90%
Income Stock	15.19%	3.52%

Safety Stock

2009-04-04T14:01:00.010+01:00

FTSE350 Stock with:

Quick Ratio >= 2
Current Ratio >= 2
Interest cover >= 2

Name	Close	Quick ratio	Current ratio	Interest cover
Autonomy Corporation	1401	2.35	2.35	97.4
AVEVA Group	625.5	2.40	2.40	1890
BlueBay Asset Management	128	3.95	3.95	8300
Brown (N) Group	191.75	3.91	4.49	5.7
BTG	138.75	3.13	3.13	37.4
Centrica	227.5	2.00	2.08	4.62
Emerald Energy	487.5	2.98	3.24	20.7
Evolution Group (The)	98.5	2.25	2.25	36.5
Hunting	425.5	2.44	3	9.5
Man Group	254.25	3.90	3.90	61.7
Renishaw	278.25	2.83	3.96	289
Thames River Multi Hedge PCC	88.5	12.10	12.10	14.6

Largest Bounce off Low

2009-04-04T13:58:00.002+01:00

FTSE 350 Stocks showing the greatest rise from 255 trading day lows:

Name	Close	255 trading day High	255 trading day Low
Taylor Wimpey	29.0	186.0	4.4
Aricom	28.3	106.0	5.2
Fresnillo	452.0	565.5	99.0
Hochschild Mining	240.0	438.3	66.3
Barclays	168.4	496.0	51.2
Enterprise Inns	91.0	510.0	31.8
Venture Production	821.0	935.5	289.3
Pace	97.5	97.5	34.5
Ferrexpo	59.8	455.5	21.5
Barratt Developments	107.0	422.3	39.0
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The)	28.2	329.6	10.3
Lonmin	1500.0	3596.0	552.0
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation	514.0	1535.0	191.4
Aquarius Platinum Ltd	233.8	920.0	88.0
Kazakhmys	459.5	1943.0	173.8
DSG International	25.0	74.5	9.5
Wetherspoon (J D)	444.8	444.8	174.8
Debenhams	55.5	67.0	22.5
Heritage Oil Ltd	339.8	350.0	138.3
Rio Tinto	2536.0	7078.0	1049.0
Randgold Resources Ltd	3708.0	3883.0	1557.0
PartyGaming	223.0	300.0	95.0
Travis Perkins	522.5	1080.0	223.0
Inchcape	79.5	451.0	35.5
Premier Foods	36.3	133.8	16.3

Stocks at / near 255 day high

2009-04-04T13:53:00.003+01:00

Stocks from the FTSE 350 trading at 255 day high:

Name	Close	255 trading day High	255 trading day Low
Autonomy Corporation	1401.0	1401.0	730.0
Dunelm Group	228.8	228.8	112.3
Emerald Energy	487.5	487.5	295.0
Experian	474.0	474.0	274.8
Kingfisher	164.4	164.4	91.8
Micro Focus International	323.5	323.5	191.3
Next	1476.0	1476.0	837.5
Pace	97.5	97.5	34.5
Pearson	732.5	732.5	519.5
Wetherspoon (J D)	444.8	444.8	174.8

Stocks Near 255 Day High

Name	Close	255 trading day High	255 trading day Low
Hargreaves Lansdown	209.8	210.0	132.0
Thomson Reuters	1656.0	1682.0	952.0
Heritage Oil Ltd	339.8	350.0	138.3
Domino's Pizza UK & IRL	228.0	232.0	158.8
Bluecrest Allblue Fund Ltd	121.5	123.0	101.8
Randgold Resources Ltd	3708.0	3883.0	1557.0
Home Retail Group	265.8	280.8	163.5
McBride	123.0	131.8	73.0
HMV Group	139.5	149.3	86.3
Vectura Group	60.5	64.5	39.0

Cheap on forecast Earnings

2009-04-04T13:50:00.001+01:00

Ten lowest Forecast PER stocks from the FTSE 350:

Name	Close	1 year forecast EPS	1 Yr Forcast PER
National Express Group	196.0	70.8	2.8
Enterprise Inns	91.0	32.5	2.8
Aviva	240.5	77.9	3.1
Ferrexpo	59.8	19.3	3.1
Ashtead Group	46.3	12.2	3.8
Beazley Group	91.8	22.0	4.2
Catlin Group	321.5	75.5	4.3
Interserve	197.5	44.0	4.5
Morgan Crucible Company	89.0	17.6	5.1
Prudential	369.0	72.4	5.1

Cheap on Cashflow

2009-04-04T13:47:00.000+01:00

Lowest Price to Cashflow from the FTSE 350:

Name	Close	Price to cash flow
Ashtead Group	46.3	0.96
BT Group	83.0	1.40
Whitbread	863.5	1.42
Smith (DS)	57.5	1.65
COLT Telecom Group SA	87.3	1.74
Vedanta Resources	793.5	1.94
Davis Service Group (The)	276.3	2.11
Enterprise Inns	91.0	2.12
Xstrata	567.5	2.12
DSG International	25.0	2.14
Debenhams	55.5	2.50
National Grid	544.5	2.57
Euromoney Institutional Investor	210.0	2.68
Man Group	254.3	2.68
BlueBay Asset Management	128.0	2.88
Carphone Warehouse Group (The)	137.3	2.95
HMV Group	139.5	2.97
SThree	178.0	2.97
Stagecoach Group	138.5	3.04
Anglo American	1340.0	3.08
Rio Tinto	2536.0	3.14
Go-Ahead Group (The)	1184.0	3.21
Pace	97.5	3.23
Royal Dutch Shell	1563.0	3.23

Cheap on Book

2009-04-04T13:39:00.005+01:00

FTSE 350 stocks (ex REITs and Investment Trusts) with a Price to Book value lower than 1 and positive cash flow.

Name	Close	Price to book	Price to cash flow
Greene King	558.00	1.00	4.71
Home Retail Group	265.75	0.70	4.76
Inchcape	79.50	0.39	4.97
Marston's	145.00	0.56	4.10
Mitchells & Butlers	265.75	0.91	3.50
Moneysupermarket.com Group	47.00	0.92	6.13
Royal Dutch Shell	1563.00	0.48	3.23
Smith (DS)	57.50	0.38	1.65
Synergy Health	325	0.79	5.01
Thomson Reuters	1656.00	1.00	7.03
Vodafone Group	128.80	0.88	6.62
Xstrata	567.50	0.63	2.12

Income Stock

2009-04-04T13:19:00.008+01:00

FTSE 350 Stocks with a covered yield and potential for capital growth:

Yielding > 5%,
Forecast Yield > 5%,
Dividend covered by earnings,
Forecast dividend > 2 x covered by earnings,
PEG ratio <= 1

Name	Close	Yield	Forecast Yield	Forecast Divi Cover
Ashtead Group	46.25	5.43	5.66%	4.66
Beazley Group	91.75	6.88	7.36%	3.26
Carillion	257.75	5.04	5.44%	2.73
FirstGroup	307.5	5.54	6.12%	2.57
Imperial Tobacco Group	1581	3.99	5.08%	2.00
Meggitt	140.5	6.01	6.01%	2.94
Sports Direct International	60.5	7.44	6.10%	2.04
United Business Media	455	5.23	5.58%	2.19

Overview

2009-02-04T11:02:00.006Z

From EU Banker & others

Cycle: 2 years to recovery

Negative growth expected throughout 2009 in most markets. Spending slowing. Governmental remedies likely to take at least 6 months before any positive effect feeds through. Near term recovery unlikely. Very fast rise in unemployment - with knock on effect for consumption and government spending. Unemployment unlikely to improve this year or next. Corporate insolvency will rise this year and next. At best economic growth is likely to remain static this year and early next. At some stage inventory will need re-stocking and may offer a floor to economy. Some assets will recover in anticipation but not likely this year.

Rates / FX / Inflation: Ex USD this year, return late 2010.

Rates will stay low through 2009. UK Base rate 1.5%, U.S. @ 0.5%, Japan at 0.1%. Only ECB lagging with interest rate cuts on the Euro, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet suggesting that no cuts will come this month. Rates were cut by 0.5% to 2% at the Jan 15th meeting. Most expect rates to go to 1.5% in March. FX rates will reflect the fundamentals of interest rate parity. Euro has space to narrow against the dollar. USD expected to remain strong until Euro differentials steady - probably towards back end of 2009. Eventually authorities will raise rates and FX rates will be determined by anticipation of increases. This may lead to Dollar weakness late 2010. Inflation will fall this year and next but may return with a vengeance.

Bonds: Pass on long dated and Gilts. Specific Shorts & Mids may offer value

Long term outlook weak. Yields low (values high). Rising rates past 2009 will hit mid and long term bonds. Rising inflation will also destroy real value. But some bonds in quality corporations have been oversold to distressed levels by investors may offer opportunity. There is the risk that distressed debt may become more distressed...

Equities: Buy on dips slowly at first through summer. Expect recovery over next two years.

Equities respond quickly, generally leading the economic cycle. Probably seen the worst and will enjoy relief rallies - but near time upside will be limited by bad news flow. P/E ratios look cheap on historic earnings but reporting out till 2010 will show large falls, bringing those ratios into line. There is cash waiting for investment. When fear lifts money will hit the street, and it will be quick.

Private Equity: Existing investors wait and suffer, opportunities for new money.

A Reliance on debt will end many PE Houses. The next year or two will be painful for existing investors who may have to meet cash calls. Valuation reporting at year end will dent confidence further. PE Houses will stop issuing new funds while resolving problems with existing investments. Existing PE fund investment probably not be a great place to be until late 2010. But if you can stand highly volatile deeply illiquid long term investment then 2009 may offer some bargains in the PE field.

Commodities: Long Oil / Short or Neutral Gold

Long only investment unlikely to thrive in recession although values have probably overshot, particularly oil which expect to see $60+ by year end and perhaps futher later. Gold will move in inverse direction to global economy. Gold values last year determined by huge risk aversion as CC unwound and institutions were still determining their exposure. Long term global economic recovery likely to have adverse impact on gold price.

28/01/09 news review

2009-01-28T08:10:00.003Z

The UK blue chip index closed 14.60 points, or 0.4 percent lower on Tuesday at 4,194.41 weighed down by weaker commodity issues, giving back some of Monday's 3.9 percent advance which had been led by a recovery in banks.

The focus on Wednesday will be on the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank has already slashed interest rates to nearly zero and is looking for other tools to revive economic growth.

The British government's forecast for a strong rebound in economic growth next year is optimistic and preparations must be made for the "worst case scenario", a group of lawmakers said.

* Wall Street rises as AmEx, other results reassure
* Nikkei led higher by tech shares, hopes for US policy
* Dollar edges up vs yen, slips vs euro before Fed
* Oil bounces above $42 after plunge on demand fears
* Gold holds near 3-month high, ETF at record

UK stock to watch on Wednesday are:

RIO TINTO
The global miner, facing persistent rumours it might need to sell shares to help pay off $39 billion in debt, has conceded that an equity raising was one option being considered.

Investment software

2009-01-18T20:41:00.009Z

The following are links to investment related software that I have found useful:

SHARESCOPE
www.sharescope.co.uk

This software is aimed at the retail investor but receiving growing attention from the professional investment community. It has great fundamental and technical capabilities and is a consistent winner of awards. The software is very good value.

Use for: Fundamental & Technical Analysis, charting and data mining on fundamental and technical criteria.

PROQUOTE
www.proquote.com

Proquote came into the market to compete with Reuters and Bloomberg. These systems are good value given the functionality they offer but the majority of users only require prices, depth and direct market access. Proquote provides this for around £3,000 a year.

Use for: Real time prices, level two data and order entry onto the order book.

COMPANY REFS
www.companyrefs.com

Company refs provide fundamental data and data mining facilities. Online access to Refs costs around £800 a year.

Use for: Data mining on fundamentals. Very easy to read single page reports. Easy comparisons against the market and stock sector on growth and value criteria.